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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Estar Backsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 8 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 6 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 5 games
80%

Estar Backs

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 12 games
17%
Tiny
Tinysignature
payk · 11 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
bsK7- · 7 games
86%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 5 games
60%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
634 picks · 437 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
576 picks · 317 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 577 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
449 picks · 655 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 385 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
355 picks · 522 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 1033 bans
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 410 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Estar Backs
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:24
Amaru Gaming 52%Estar Backs 48%
The model gave 52% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinK1
42% · 24 games52% · 171 game
UrsaParker
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
47% · 487 games47% · 233 games
BeastmasterbsK7-
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordOscar
48% · 247 games50% · 331 game
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanda
55% · 10 games55% · 69 games
Nyx AssassinMichael
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionGenek
54% · 141 game50% · 105 games
EnchantressAccel
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed14:24
Amaru Gaming 52%Estar Backs 48%
The model gave 52% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 31:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOscar
49% · 199 games56% · 203 games
BeastmasterbsK7-
Beastmaster
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinK1
42% · 22 games43% · 57 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
47% · 433 games55% · 331 game
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeGenek
57% · 81 game50% · 135 games
EnchantressAccel
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesPanda
42% · 91 game53% · 100 games
Keeper of the LightMichael
Keeper of the Light
Game 3prediction correct46:35
Amaru Gaming 51%Estar Backs 49%
The model gave 51% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 59:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
54% · 163 games52% · 49 games
Anti-MageParker
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
46% · 368 games57% · 443 games
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordOscar
51% · 154 games47% · 260 games
AxebsK7-
Axe
Rubick
RubickGenek
48% · 186 games48% · 54 games
Winter WyvernAccel
Winter Wyvern
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePanda
45% · 84 games50% · 149 games
LionMichael
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 56%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3