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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 8 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 7 games
57%
Axe
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 24 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 17 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 17 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
558 picks · 913 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 403 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
484 picks · 653 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
482 picks · 613 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 878 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
379 picks · 613 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 505 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 215 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:30
Amaru Gaming 29%Heroic 71%
The model gave 71% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWits
48% · 173 games57% · 408 games
Dragon KnightYuma
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsOscar
49% · 274 games53% · 330 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGardick
41% · 111 games52% · 40 games
RazorTaiLung
Razor
Jakiro
JakiroMichael
44% · 432 games56% · 147 games
Skywrath MageThiolicor
Skywrath Mage
55% · 65 games
Ogre MagiKJ
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct14:22
Amaru Gaming 30%Heroic 70%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerWits
44% · 70 games55% · 25 games
BroodmotherYuma
Broodmother
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOscar
41% · 122 games65% · 83 games
EnigmaTaiLung
Enigma
Tusk
TuskMichael
39% · 246 games55% · 104 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Largo
LargoGardick
38% · 4 games53% · 196 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
69% · 34 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 80%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2