Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KKRDloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Amaru Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 10 games
Jakiro
Gardick · 9 games
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
KRD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
570 picks · 353 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 572 bans
Rubick
463 picks · 243 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 377 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 541 bans
Puck
332 picks · 881 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 813 bans
Tusk
312 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:10
Amaru Gaming 72%KRD 28%
The model gave 72% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 25:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidK1
BroodmotherMandy
Storm SpiritPiPi
DawnbreakerOscar
RubickGenek
Witch DoctorPanda
Game 2prediction correct41:19
Amaru Gaming 71%KRD 29%
The model gave 71% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidK1
Monkey KingMandy
ZeusPiPi
AxeOscar
TechiesPanda
WindrangerGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 86%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2