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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Looking for Orgwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 4 games
25%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 4 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 4 games
25%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshrac
TaiLung · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%

Looking for Org

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Matthew · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ILICH- · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Panda · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 1 game
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
568 picks · 701 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 350 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 663 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 547 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
418 picks · 144 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 191 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 524 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 520 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:19
Amaru Gaming 33%Looking for Org 67%
The model gave 67% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTaiLung
52% · 369 games51% · 35 games
Weaverpayk
Weaver
Clinkz
ClinkzWits
67% · 31 game49% · 108 games
TidehunterILICH-
Tidehunter
Underlord
UnderlordOscar
47% · 94 games43% · 33 games
Earth SpiritPiPi
Earth Spirit
Undying
UndyingGardick
46% · 98 games52% · 231 game
JakiroPanda
Jakiro
47% · 185 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct10:32
Amaru Gaming 31%Looking for Org 69%
The model gave 69% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
58% · 26 games48% · 24 games
Clinkzpayk
Clinkz
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTaiLung
48% · 249 games51% · 326 games
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Mars
MarsOscar
47% · 210 games51% · 93 games
UnderlordILICH-
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroGardick
50% · 334 games51% · 107 games
Skywrath MageMatthew
Skywrath Mage
50% · 269 games
DisruptorPanda
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct17:32
Amaru Gaming 32%Looking for Org 68%
The model gave 68% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 55:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWits
47% · 251 game52% · 70 games
Muertapayk
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordOscar
46% · 94 games61% · 123 games
BristlebackILICH-
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTaiLung
50% · 190 games49% · 161 game
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGardick
51% · 10 games56% · 66 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
43% · 125 games
Dark WillowMatthew
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 81%
Series resultLooking for Org 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3