DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NNotloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Amaru Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 9 games
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
Not
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
650 picks · 691 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 453 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 423 bans
Phoenix
444 picks · 439 bans
Warlock
436 picks · 289 bans
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 1118 bans
Puck
405 picks · 873 bans
Hoodwink
402 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Amaru Gaming 62%Not 38%
The model gave 62% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 62%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1