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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Peru Rejectswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 7 games
29%
Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
50%

Peru Rejects

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 12 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
544 picks · 815 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 363 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
467 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 570 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
386 picks · 730 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 572 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 469 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 530 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:23
Amaru Gaming 40%Peru Rejects 60%
The model gave 60% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 21:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaWits
53% · 230 games47% · 31 game
LunaParker
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordOscar
50% · 108 games50% · 160 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGardick
64% · 29 games50% · 100 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
48% · 201 game46% · 239 games
JakiroElmisho
Jakiro
46% · 38 games
RubickScofield
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Amaru Gaming 37%Peru Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 27:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWits
48% · 95 games48% · 105 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Slardar
SlardarOscar
57% · 215 games48% · 226 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMichael
55% · 209 games47% · 79 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Disruptor
DisruptorGardick
50% · 235 games48% · 239 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
46% · 105 games
Skywrath MageElmisho
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 72%
Series resultPeru Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2