EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TJTeam Jenzloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Amaru Gaming
Rubick
Genek · 9 games
Hoodwink
Panda · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
PiPi · 8 games
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Enchantress
Panda · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Windranger
Genek · 4 games
Team Jenz
Linasignature
No!ob · 6 games
Snapfireoften banned
No!ob · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
Luna
Parker · 5 games
Ringmaster
Jing · 5 games
Baneoften banned
islA · 4 games
Shadow Demon
Jing · 4 games
Tusk
Yadomi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 365 bans
Clockwerk
363 picks · 648 bans
Rubick
344 picks · 193 bans
Bane
339 picks · 384 bans
Tiny
318 picks · 346 bans
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 448 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 231 bans
Snapfire
297 picks · 427 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Jenz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed77:21
Amaru Gaming 49%Team Jenz 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 27:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyPiPi
Void SpiritMagE-
TimbersawOscar
TuskislA
BanePanda
Earth SpiritGenek
Game 2prediction missed53:11
Amaru Gaming 48%Team Jenz 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 23:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerPiPi
Storm SpiritMagE-
LargoOscar
Keeper of the LightislA
LionGenek
BanePanda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Jenz · 58%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2