?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
x5 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 5 games
20%
Kez
Kez
Wits · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Wits · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
50%
Undying
Undying
Gardick · 4 games
50%

x5 Gaming

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Pamplona · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Underlord
Underlord
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaver
Pamplona · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 786 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
501 picks · 344 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 634 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 559 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 701 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 564 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 465 bans
49%
Slardar
Slardar
322 picks · 897 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Amaru Gaming 60%x5 Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherWits
59% · 26 games41% · 32 games
BrewmasterHermit
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
56% · 93 games45% · 120 games
GyrocopterPamplona
Gyrocopter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
50% · 179 games46% · 164 games
Disruptor555k
Disruptor
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGardick
62% · 18 games
Game 2prediction missed17:19
Amaru Gaming 59%x5 Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherWits
49% · 29 games47% · 231 game
TidehunterHermit
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
58% · 245 games45% · 364 games
Warlock555k
Warlock
Chen
ChenGardick
59% · 144 games45% · 240 games
Shadow DemonPamplona
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroMichael
50% · 417 games
Game 3prediction correct21:14
Amaru Gaming 57%x5 Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWits
45% · 41 game44% · 47 games
BrewmasterHermit
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
58% · 49 games49% · 77 games
Undying555k
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGardick
53% · 41 game53% · 53 games
Spirit BreakerPamplona
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMichael
48% · 46 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 65%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3