BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribewin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ancient Tribe
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 8 games
Tiny
Alexxo · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 7 games
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
X3
Tinysignature
velheor · 22 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 21 game
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 17 games
Jakirosignature
dark · 15 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
341 picks · 298 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 250 bans
Marci
276 picks · 526 bans
Undying
252 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 502 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% X3
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:29
Ancient Tribe 39%X3 61%
The model gave 61% on X3 — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 1:10:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarklil pleb
Drow Rangernesfeer
Death ProphetMTD
LycanShergarat
Dark SeermeLes
ZeusNattyNarwhal
Tinyillusion
Tuskalone
LichLeBronDota
Hoodwinkdark
Game 2prediction missed33:29
Ancient Tribe 40%X3 60%
The model gave 60% on X3 — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursalil pleb
Monkey Kingnesfeer
MiranaMTD
SnapfireNattyNarwhal
PangoliermeLes
EnigmaShergarat
Rubickillusion
Tinyalone
GyrocopterLeBronDota
Crystal Maidendark
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 69%
Series resultAncient Tribe 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2