Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Another NA Team
Death Prophetoften banned
Lies · 5 games
Rubick
Moonlight · 5 games
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 4 games
Luna
Argius · 3 games
Miranaoften banned
Lies · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
RRL · 3 games
Tiny
Moonlight · 3 games
Bane
FeelinG · 2 games
CDUB Esports
Rubick
AfrOmoush · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 4 games
Snapfire
Sanctified · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
453 picks · 450 bans
Rubick
451 picks · 301 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 399 bans
Mirana
325 picks · 325 bans
Treant Protector
302 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
274 picks · 140 bans
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 621 bans
Crystal Maiden
234 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength66% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:32
Another NA Team 34%CDUB Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterUSH
LinaDouble King
Chaos KnightArgius
VisageislA
Death ProphetRRL
ChenAfrOmoush
Crystal MaidenFeelinG
TuskMark
ClockwerkThe Warden
TinySanctified
Game 2prediction correct10:39
Another NA Team 36%CDUB Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 26:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetUSH
BeastmasterislA
UrsaArgius
BloodseekerDouble King
TuskRRL
Ember SpiritMark
TinyThe Warden
RubickAfrOmoush
Crystal MaidenFeelinG
HoodwinkSanctified
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 74%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2