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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Feltwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Another NA Team

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RRL · 7 games
14%
Rubick
Rubick
Moonlight · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 5 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
USH · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
FeelinG · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
The Warden · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
USH · 4 games
25%

Felt

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Chen · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursasignature
paradise' · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
603 picks · 391 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 518 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 430 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
416 picks · 495 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 370 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
352 picks · 187 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 758 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 204 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:31
Another NA Team 46%Felt 54%
The model gave 54% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArgius
46% · 67 games52% · 225 games
Nature's ProphetBerna
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierRRL
52% · 215 games57% · 167 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Mars
MarsUSH
46% · 212 games50% · 193 games
Invokersolji
Invoker
Tiny
TinyThe Warden
46% · 511 games53% · 170 games
DisruptorShoe
Disruptor
Silencer
SilencerFeelinG
44% · 138 games53% · 388 games
ClockwerkChen
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct19:35
Another NA Team 49%Felt 51%
The model gave 51% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetUSH
56% · 232 games46% · 236 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingArgius
54% · 279 games50% · 203 games
TerrorbladeBerna
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckRRL
53% · 357 games48% · 640 games
Tinysolji
Tiny
Tusk
TuskThe Warden
51% · 466 games41% · 257 games
DawnbreakerChen
Dawnbreaker
Disruptor
DisruptorFeelinG
58% · 185 games44% · 183 games
Crystal MaidenShoe
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 54%
Series resultFelt 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2