Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamwin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Cutloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Another NA Team
Death Prophetoften banned
RRL · 7 games
Rubick
Moonlight · 6 games
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 5 games
Marsoften banned
USH · 5 games
Silencer
FeelinG · 4 games
Tiny
Moonlight · 4 games
Tusk
FeelinG · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
USH · 3 games
The Cut
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 9 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 8 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 6 games
Marcioften banned
bgod · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
571 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 508 bans
Tiny
508 picks · 428 bans
Treant Protector
396 picks · 463 bans
Mirana
369 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 176 bans
Clockwerk
305 picks · 194 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:7
Another NA Team 47%The Cut 53%
The model gave 53% on The Cut — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracRRL
LycanChives
Nature's ProphetUSH
SpectreScourge McDuck
SlarkArgius
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
TuskThe Warden
RubickSave
DisruptorFeelinG
Treant Protectorempyrean5
Game 2prediction correct15:34
Another NA Team 46%The Cut 54%
The model gave 54% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaArgius
BristlebackScourge McDuck
InvokerRRL
Queen of Painhigh_shaggy
BeastmasterUSH
Nature's ProphetChives
HoodwinkThe Warden
TinySave
Treant ProtectorFeelinG
Disruptorempyrean5
Game 3prediction missed38:14
Another NA Team 46%The Cut 54%
The model gave 54% on The Cut — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritRRL
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Shadow FiendArgius
Zeushigh_shaggy
TidehunterUSH
Nature's ProphetChives
TinyThe Warden
Clockwerkempyrean5
SilencerFeelinG
RubickSave
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 56%
Series resultAnother NA Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3