The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionAPAntarctic Penguinsloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Antarctic Penguins
Rubick
FelixCiaoBa · 13 games
Tinysignature
Kaka · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
XCJ · 10 games
Pucksignature
AlaCrity · 9 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
Tusk
FelixCiaoBa · 8 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
eGo · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
745 picks · 465 bans
Tusk
614 picks · 558 bans
Tiny
583 picks · 462 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 579 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 239 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 386 bans
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 565 bans
Death Prophet
380 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:30
Antarctic Penguins 27%HellRaisers 73%
The model gave 73% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 23:26.
Game 2prediction correct17:36
Antarctic Penguins 27%HellRaisers 73%
The model gave 73% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 27:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 73%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2