Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ANxJELL ESPORTSwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBTeam Badboysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ANxJELL ESPORTS
Skywrath Mageoften banned
Asao · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Asao · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Asao · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Asao · 1 game
Team Badboys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 310 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 261 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 513 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 557 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 119 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% ANxJELL ESPORTS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Badboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:20
ANxJELL ESPORTS 45%Team Badboys 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Badboys — the game was taken by ANxJELL ESPORTS in 34:52.
Game 2prediction missed27:12
ANxJELL ESPORTS 45%Team Badboys 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Badboys — the game was taken by ANxJELL ESPORTS in 22:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Badboys · 55%
Series resultANxJELL ESPORTS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2