FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Dark Willow
Bignum · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 8 games
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 8 games
Treant Protector
YamSun · 7 games
Fantasy Gaming
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DM · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
DM · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
481 picks · 659 bans
Clockwerk
438 picks · 510 bans
Pangolier
378 picks · 554 bans
Dark Willow
365 picks · 189 bans
Batrider
340 picks · 369 bans
Luna
323 picks · 429 bans
Muerta
317 picks · 242 bans
Invoker
315 picks · 878 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:3
Apex Genesis 68%Fantasy Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 17:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterFayde
Troll WarlordDM
TerrorbladeYamSun
Ember SpiritS1RENM
EarthshakerRCY
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
ChenSpeeed
Dark WillowBignum
Game 2prediction correct24:4
Apex Genesis 68%Fantasy Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 22:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterFayde
SniperS1RENM
Monkey KingYamSun
GyrocopterDM
Earth SpiritRCY
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
MuertaBignum
ChenSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 78%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2