PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
joking aroundloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 3 games
Pugna
BliNcc · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 2 games
Puckoften banned
red2 · 2 games
joking around
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
412 picks · 664 bans
Mars
390 picks · 626 bans
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
Techies
386 picks · 315 bans
Batrider
371 picks · 811 bans
Tiny
367 picks · 433 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Apex Genesis 85%joking around 15%
The model gave 85% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Game 2prediction correct
Apex Genesis 85%joking around 15%
The model gave 85% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 85%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2