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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
M80loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
33%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
YamSun · 7 games
57%

M80

Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 25 games
24%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 22 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Elmisho · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
MoOz · 16 games
31%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 15 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Elmisho · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 647 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
458 picks · 525 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 570 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 395 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
340 picks · 260 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
330 picks · 913 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
323 picks · 675 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
Apex Genesis 45%M80 55%
The model gave 55% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYamSun
43% · 83 games53% · 125 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
47% · 202 games55% · 126 games
BristlebackILICH-
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey KingRCY
48% · 142 games48% · 240 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Muerta
MuertaBignum
48% · 144 games54% · 194 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaSpeeed
51% · 114 games
Game 2prediction missed27:11
Apex Genesis 45%M80 55%
The model gave 55% on M80 — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanFayde
36% · 10 games51% · 210 games
GyrocopterK1
Gyrocopter
Magnus
MagnusYamSun
50% · 116 games58% · 76 games
DawnbreakerILICH-
Dawnbreaker
Sniper
SniperRCY
47% · 75 games45% · 19 games
Skywrath MageElmisho
Skywrath Mage
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
44% · 188 games53% · 286 games
ClockwerkMoOz
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
50% · 202 games
Game 3prediction missed23:15
Apex Genesis 43%M80 57%
The model gave 57% on M80 — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYamSun
55% · 171 game42% · 39 games
JuggernautK1
Juggernaut
Invoker
InvokerRCY
43% · 115 games52% · 166 games
MagnusILICH-
Magnus
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFayde
48% · 109 games49% · 181 game
MuertaElmisho
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
50% · 194 games50% · 311 games
EnchantressMoOz
Enchantress
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBignum
59% · 108 games
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 62%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3