FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
No games played over 6 months.
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 35 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 28 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
455 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
454 picks · 232 bans
Puck
357 picks · 948 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
303 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 226 bans
Batrider
286 picks · 654 bans
Nature's Prophet
286 picks · 670 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Apex Genesis 28%Runa Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Apex Genesis 28%Runa Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 72%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2