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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 8 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Fayde · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
63%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Speeed · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 7 games
57%

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Skem · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 11 games
82%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 311 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
325 picks · 273 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 453 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 371 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 410 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
295 picks · 459 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
288 picks · 497 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Apex Genesis 37%Shopify Rebellion 63%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSammyboy
49% · 141 game49% · 253 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainW1sh-
49% · 101 game56% · 247 games
Doommangekyou
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaFayde
48% · 308 games51% · 315 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
49% · 288 games59% · 119 games
Naga SirenSkem
Naga Siren
Enchantress
EnchantressYamSun
47% · 289 games43% · 193 games
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct33:38
Apex Genesis 40%Shopify Rebellion 60%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 46:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSammyboy
55% · 84 games54% · 69 games
BristlebackTimado
Bristleback
Timbersaw
TimbersawW1sh-
47% · 170 games49% · 114 games
Beastmastermangekyou
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
51% · 114 games44% · 216 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorYamSun
47% · 112 games53% · 66 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBignum
47% · 205 games54% · 220 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2