?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 3:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 3:0
The Hutloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
YamSun · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%

The Hut

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
bgod · 2 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
bgod · 2 games
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
bgod · 1 game
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bgod · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 603 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 382 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
358 picks · 139 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
353 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
313 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
311 picks · 580 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 617 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
Apex Genesis 59%The Hut 41%
The model gave 59% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 27:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSammyboy
45% · 18 games49% · 255 games
Grimstrokebgod
Grimstroke
Pangolier
PangolierW1sh-
52% · 90 games
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
68% · 18 games
Rubick
RubickBignum
41% · 60 games
Phoenix
PhoenixYamSun
47% · 69 games
Game 2prediction correct39:10
Apex Genesis 58%The Hut 42%
The model gave 58% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 23:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFayde
52% · 52 games50% · 225 games
Dark Willowbgod
Dark Willow
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSammyboy
48% · 21 game
Tiny
TinyW1sh-
48% · 60 games
Weaver
WeaverBignum
51% · 72 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanYamSun
50% · 20 games
Game 3prediction correct30:14
Apex Genesis 63%The Hut 37%
The model gave 63% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSammyboy
50% · 4 games43% · 21 game
Clinkzbgod
Clinkz
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
70% · 6 games
Underlord
UnderlordFayde
little data
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
53% · 11 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanYamSun
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 70%
Series resultApex Genesis 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3