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European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 10 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 7 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 6 games
83%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
flacko · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 5 games
60%

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 810 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 299 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 812 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
424 picks · 650 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 862 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
386 picks · 1027 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
385 picks · 356 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 520 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Apple City Gang 57%Hydra 43%
The model gave 57% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Game 2prediction correct
Apple City Gang 57%Hydra 43%
The model gave 57% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 57%
Series resultApple City Gang 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2