Apple City Gang vs Level UP — prediction CCT Series 7 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

CCT Series 7 · BO3

result vs prediction

Apple City Gangwin 2:1

series probability

65%35%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Level UPloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

No games played over 6 months.

Level UP

Rubick

Jeezy · 11 games

45%

Luna

Focus · 9 games

44%

Tusk

SsaSpartan · 9 games

44%

Clockwerkoften banned

SsaSpartan · 8 games

38%

Phoenixoften banned

SsaSpartan · 8 games

50%

Dark Willow

xsvampire · 7 games

29%

Invokeroften banned

MaTson · 7 games

14%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

Wuiter · 6 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

501 picks · 662 bans

51%

Phoenix

490 picks · 796 bans

53%

Clockwerk

477 picks · 478 bans

53%

Batrider

449 picks · 548 bans

50%

Muerta

419 picks · 362 bans

52%

Magnus

412 picks · 1000 bans

57%

Gyrocopter

390 picks · 763 bans

56%

Bristleback

388 picks · 910 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)55% vs 33%

Hero pool strength53% Apple City Gang

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total65% Apple City Gang

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed29:34

Apple City Gang 58%Level UP 42%

The model gave 58% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Level UP in 39:56.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo