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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 8 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
flacko · 8 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 7 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 7 games
43%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 7 games
71%

Level UP

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 6 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Focus · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 669 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
406 picks · 404 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 721 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 612 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 526 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
313 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
299 picks · 584 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 27%
Hero pool strength57% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
Apple City Gang 52%Level UP 48%
The model gave 52% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
44% · 259 games52% · 218 games
MorphlingNikobaby
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
52% · 322 games50% · 93 games
BrewmasterGunnar
Brewmaster
Sand King
Sand KingNorma
56% · 313 games46% · 346 games
TinyMaTson
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterFernans
52% · 190 games50% · 181 game
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
Bane
Baneflacko
54% · 50 games45% · 296 games
JakiroDuBu
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct40:12
Apple City Gang 51%Level UP 49%
The model gave 51% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
56% · 155 games48% · 145 games
Phantom AssassinNikobaby
Phantom Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
56% · 153 games55% · 251 game
Sand KingGunnar
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
46% · 380 games47% · 326 games
Dragon KnightMaTson
Dragon Knight
Silencer
Silencerflacko
48% · 86 games46% · 126 games
WarlockDuBu
Warlock
Tusk
TuskFernans
51% · 306 games47% · 232 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 50%
Series resultApple City Gang 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2