?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 9 games
78%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 7 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 6 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 5 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 5 games
40%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
35%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 25 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
67%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 810 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 302 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 808 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 659 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
409 picks · 868 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
389 picks · 367 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
387 picks · 1040 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
381 picks · 521 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:23
Apple City Gang 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
50% · 120 games50% · 155 games
LunaEyesight
Luna
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
47% · 344 games53% · 103 games
UnderlordChodΣX
Underlord
Visage
Visagemangekyou
52% · 51 game49% · 346 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionflacko
57% · 51 game60% · 110 games
Elder TitanBb3px
Elder Titan
Tusk
TuskQBFY
45% · 199 games42% · 51 game
RingmasterGilgir
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed28:26
Apple City Gang 48%One Move 52%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 52:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusayowaai
48% · 79 games58% · 33 games
Faceless VoidEyesight
Faceless Void
Puck
Puckdualrazee
45% · 119 games53% · 106 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Lycan
Lycanmangekyou
48% · 45 games44% · 94 games
MarsChodΣX
Mars
Ringmaster
Ringmasterflacko
45% · 40 games63% · 50 games
Ancient ApparitionGilgir
Ancient Apparition
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterQBFY
46% · 66 games55% · 66 games
Elder TitanBb3px
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 54%
Series resultApple City Gang 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2