European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangwin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apple City Gang
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 18 games
Tusk
QBFY · 14 games
Ringmaster
flacko · 12 games
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 11 games
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 8 games
Jakiro
flacko · 8 games
Medusaoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
Passion UA
Hoodwink
Fernans · 27 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
niche · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
Muerta
Fernans · 20 games
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
472 picks · 469 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 571 bans
Ringmaster
336 picks · 154 bans
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 579 bans
Terrorblade
281 picks · 527 bans
Bristleback
268 picks · 498 bans
Muerta
267 picks · 150 bans
Beastmaster
266 picks · 577 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 34%
Hero pool strength53% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Apple City Gang 59%Passion UA 41%
The model gave 59% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Passion UA in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusayowaai
TerrorbladeCrystallize
Tinydualrazee
Ember Spiritniche
Sand KingNorma
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
RingmasterFernans
Jakirokreker
Phoenixflacko
WindrangerQBFY
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Apple City Gang 58%Passion UA 42%
The model gave 58% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingyowaai
TinyCrystallize
Beastmasterdualrazee
Pangolierniche
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
TidehunterBatyuk
Shadow DemonFernans
Jakirokreker
Silencerflacko
WindrangerQBFY
Game 3prediction correct46:20
Apple City Gang 58%Passion UA 42%
The model gave 58% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealeryowaai
ClinkzCrystallize
Beastmasterdualrazee
Sand Kingniche
PangolierNorma
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
Bounty HunterFernans
MuertaQBFY
Phoenixflacko
Tuskkreker
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 64%
Series resultApple City Gang 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3