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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 10 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 7 games
86%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Norma · 6 games
83%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
flacko · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 5 games
60%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 33 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 25 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 802 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 291 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 817 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
411 picks · 643 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 856 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 340 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
383 picks · 1004 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 508 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:32
Apple City Gang 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
53% · 150 games48% · 310 games
TinyRetsu
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
52% · 244 games52% · 79 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Visage
Visagemangekyou
50% · 39 games56% · 190 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Jakiro
Jakiroflacko
47% · 230 games45% · 130 games
WarlockLeBronDota
Warlock
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterQBFY
47% · 95 games47% · 49 games
Spirit BreakerPablo
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed27:24
Apple City Gang 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusayowaai
50% · 156 games49% · 255 games
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritdualrazee
50% · 333 games52% · 209 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Lycan
Lycanmangekyou
45% · 97 games49% · 217 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Ringmaster
Ringmasterflacko
52% · 67 games54% · 113 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Tusk
TuskQBFY
48% · 345 games52% · 204 games
GyrocopterLeBronDota
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction correct5:20
Apple City Gang 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingyowaai
47% · 312 games57% · 231 game
GyrocopterRetsu
Gyrocopter
Puck
Puckdualrazee
49% · 233 games50% · 250 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Lycan
Lycanmangekyou
46% · 94 games49% · 272 games
Dragon KnightStojkov
Dragon Knight
Ringmaster
Ringmasterflacko
51% · 63 games52% · 130 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Tusk
TuskQBFY
48% · 318 games50% · 137 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3