Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCREDloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ARCRED
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 1 game
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 665 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 501 bans
Bane
456 picks · 277 bans
Sand King
430 picks · 577 bans
Dragon Knight
381 picks · 446 bans
Storm Spirit
377 picks · 643 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 822 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength64% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:29
ARCRED 43%HF 57%
The model gave 57% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 35:36.
Game 2prediction correct31:10
ARCRED 43%HF 57%
The model gave 57% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 29:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 57%
Series resultHF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2