Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCREDwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ARCRED
Puckoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 2 games
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 1 game
X3
Bane
antoha · 22 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
Tiny
velheor · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
592 picks · 453 bans
Mars
415 picks · 640 bans
Puck
406 picks · 862 bans
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 506 bans
Bane
370 picks · 248 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 168 bans
Ember Spirit
329 picks · 612 bans
Pangolier
307 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% X3
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ARCRED 34%X3 66%
The model gave 66% on X3 — the game was taken by ARCRED.
Game 2prediction missed
ARCRED 34%X3 66%
The model gave 66% on X3 — the game was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 66%
Series resultARCRED 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2