Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5ManMidasloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 286 bans
Queen of Pain
400 picks · 509 bans
Weaver
362 picks · 525 bans
Mars
349 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
287 picks · 475 bans
Spirit Breaker
257 picks · 478 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 338 bans
Snapfire
248 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:23
Arkosh Gaming 55%5ManMidas 45%
The model gave 55% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 32:54.
Game 2prediction missed11:46
Arkosh Gaming 55%5ManMidas 45%
The model gave 55% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by 5ManMidas in 30:37.
Game 3prediction correct31:13
Arkosh Gaming 55%5ManMidas 45%
The model gave 55% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 26:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 55%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3