Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
5RATFORCESTAFF
Banesignature
Overlom · 10 games
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Snapfire
bgod · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
385 picks · 493 bans
Mars
350 picks · 490 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 494 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 475 bans
Wraith King
253 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
249 picks · 366 bans
Grimstroke
244 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength65% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
Arkosh Gaming 45%5RATFORCESTAFF 55%
The model gave 55% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 25:21.
Game 2prediction correct15:34
Arkosh Gaming 45%5RATFORCESTAFF 55%
The model gave 55% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 31:11.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 55%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2