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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Electronic Boysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Arkosh Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Electronic Boys

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Speeed · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Giant · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Giant · 3 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Giant · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
449 picks · 986 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
427 picks · 591 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 692 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 608 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 294 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
290 picks · 181 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
282 picks · 242 bans
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
277 picks · 390 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:25
Arkosh Gaming 61%Electronic Boys 39%
The model gave 61% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 33:15.
Game 2prediction correct30:33
Arkosh Gaming 61%Electronic Boys 39%
The model gave 61% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 47:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 61%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2