Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Felt
Axeoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
solji · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Luna
Kom4rt · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 942 bans
Void Spirit
372 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 699 bans
Mars
328 picks · 545 bans
Grimstroke
314 picks · 312 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 220 bans
Lion
281 picks · 157 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 60%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect