The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
mason · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
mason · 1 game
Felt
Axeoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
solji · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Zore · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
460 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
Mars
366 picks · 583 bans
Puck
363 picks · 870 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 244 bans
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 428 bans
Centaur Warrunner
294 picks · 402 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:19
Arkosh Gaming 56%Felt 44%
The model gave 56% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EnchantressAui_2000
Lunasolji
77% · 22 games
TimbersawZore
50% · 8 games
Outworld DestroyerYellow Flash
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Arkosh Gaming 55%Felt 45%
The model gave 55% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Crystal MaidenAui_2000
Morphlingsolji
50% · 6 games
KunkkaYellow Flash
33% · 8 games
Dragon KnightZore
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 63%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2