Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Happy Sealswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
372 picks · 500 bans
Mars
369 picks · 517 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 482 bans
Death Prophet
284 picks · 433 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 498 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 182 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% Happy Seals
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Happy Seals
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:36
Arkosh Gaming 37%Happy Seals 63%
The model gave 63% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 38:57.
Game 2prediction correct28:34
Arkosh Gaming 37%Happy Seals 63%
The model gave 63% on Happy Seals — the game was taken by Happy Seals in 38:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteHappy Seals · 63%
Series resultHappy Seals 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2