Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 1:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Jiang Huloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Jiang Hu
Mirana
txhyoo1 · 2 games
Puckoften banned
P1 · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
P1 · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
P1 · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
txhyoo1 · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
P1 · 1 game
Tiny
P1 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
244 picks · 508 bans
Void Spirit
223 picks · 274 bans
Mars
205 picks · 377 bans
Earth Spirit
193 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
166 picks · 283 bans
Phoenix
161 picks · 187 bans
Nyx Assassin
160 picks · 512 bans
Wraith King
152 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 69%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect