Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
146 picks · 267 bans
Puck
145 picks · 337 bans
Earth Spirit
133 picks · 110 bans
Void Spirit
124 picks · 184 bans
Phoenix
114 picks · 127 bans
Keeper of the Light
97 picks · 180 bans
Nyx Assassin
95 picks · 340 bans
Rubick
94 picks · 46 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% simply TOOBASED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritesimply TOOBASED · 65%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 1:2
Series predictioncorrect