Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Rubick
Dendi · 1 game
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 17 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 12 games
Tiny
Ryoya · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
591 picks · 457 bans
Mars
418 picks · 643 bans
Puck
407 picks · 860 bans
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 512 bans
Bane
370 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 167 bans
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 620 bans
Pangolier
310 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:34
Arkosh Gaming 44%Team DogChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 32:17.
Game 2prediction missed35:15
Arkosh Gaming 46%Team DogChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyDendi
Nature's ProphetITALIANO GANGSTA
37% · 26 games
Night Stalkerlukiluki
41% · 76 games
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
52% · 110 games
BaneBloody Nine
Game 3prediction correct32:36
Arkosh Gaming 49%Team DogChamp 51%
The model gave 51% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckDendi
WeaverITALIANO GANGSTA
32% · 102 games
Dragon Knightlukiluki
65% · 39 games
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
59% · 101 game
BaneBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 56%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3