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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Magnusloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Arkosh Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
0%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Dendi · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Dendi · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
ZfreeK · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ZfreeK · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Febby · 1 game
100%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
100%

Team Magnus

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jack · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageoften banned
txhyoo1 · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nada · 1 game
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Nada · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tiny
txhyoo1 · 1 game
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 342 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
317 picks · 294 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 464 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
247 picks · 556 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
232 picks · 593 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 340 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
216 picks · 115 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:35
Arkosh Gaming 52%Team Magnus 48%
The model gave 52% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidqojqva
49% · 35 games47% · 92 games
Templar AssassinNada
Templar Assassin
Batrider
BatriderExcalibur
49% · 147 games42% · 197 games
Ember SpiritJack
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmastermonkeys-forever
59% · 212 games51% · 322 games
Tinytxhyoo1
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaZfreeK
52% · 242 games49% · 47 games
SilencerCHAAANNN
Silencer
Riki
RikiFebby
57% · 22 games
Game 2prediction missed29:11
Arkosh Gaming 50%Team Magnus 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperqojqva
42% · 26 games50% · 14 games
SpectreNada
Spectre
Pangolier
PangolierExcalibur
54% · 142 games50% · 90 games
Primal BeastJack
Primal Beast
Broodmother
Broodmothermonkeys-forever
47% · 41 game54% · 186 games
Miranatxhyoo1
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZfreeK
49% · 86 games48% · 38 games
GyrocopterCHAAANNN
Gyrocopter
Silencer
SilencerFebby
49% · 33 games
Game 3prediction correct47:25
Arkosh Gaming 50%Team Magnus 50%
The model gave 50% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 1:01:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingqojqva
47% · 101 game51% · 93 games
Shadow FiendNada
Shadow Fiend
Lina
LinaExcalibur
46% · 130 games53% · 180 games
Queen of PainJack
Queen of Pain
Silencer
SilencerFebby
52% · 39 games50% · 69 games
Shadow Shamantxhyoo1
Shadow Shaman
Primal Beast
Primal Beastmonkeys-forever
54% · 32 games54% · 58 games
Ogre MagiCHAAANNN
Ogre Magi
Rubick
RubickZfreeK
46% · 98 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 51%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3