?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jhocam · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Jhocam · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
db- · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 8 games
63%

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 9 games
78%
Mirana
Mirana
Xepher · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
xNova · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 491 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
456 picks · 1099 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 805 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1036 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 831 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
381 picks · 544 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 208 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:22
Army Geniuses 43%BOOM Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYowe
54% · 98 games49% · 130 games
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidinYourdreaM
58% · 87 games49% · 201 game
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Beastmaster
Beastmasterdb-
52% · 194 games49% · 138 games
TechiesXepher
Techies
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJhocam
49% · 128 games46% · 55 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
44% · 114 games50% · 97 games
LichxNova
Lich
Game 2prediction missed36:40
Army Geniuses 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 56:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerdb-
51% · 96 games59% · 83 games
Naga SirenNatsumi
Naga Siren
Morphling
MorphlinginYourdreaM
48% · 184 games55% · 57 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYowe
51% · 141 game48% · 81 game
MagnusFbz
Magnus
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJhocam
44% · 45 games47% · 305 games
RubickXepher
Rubick
Techies
TechiesVarizh
50% · 178 games46% · 118 games
SilencerxNova
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 65%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2