Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Pugnasignature
db- · 13 games
Batridersignature
Yowe · 11 games
Rubick
Jhocam · 10 games
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 10 games
Mirana
Jhocam · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 8 games
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 7 games
BOOM Esports
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
Mirana
Xepher · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Xepher · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
590 picks · 512 bans
Beastmaster
489 picks · 1213 bans
Doom
487 picks · 933 bans
Ember Spirit
433 picks · 1095 bans
Pangolier
421 picks · 875 bans
Mirana
409 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
405 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:27
Army Geniuses 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYowe
AlchemistNatsumi
Doomdb-
PangolierYopaj
SlarkinYourdreaM
MarsMushi
PugnaJhocam
EnchantressxNova
Crystal MaidenVarizh
Keeper of the LightXepher
Game 2prediction missed18:17
Army Geniuses 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 41:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusainYourdreaM
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Storm SpiritYowe
Ember SpiritYopaj
Tidehunterdb-
AlchemistMushi
BatriderJhocam
Keeper of the LightXepher
PugnaVarizh
SilencerxNova
Game 3prediction missed23:18
Army Geniuses 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SireninYourdreaM
Monkey KingNatsumi
Timbersawdb-
MagnusMushi
WindrangerYowe
BatriderYopaj
Dark WillowJhocam
GrimstrokeXepher
PugnaVarizh
SilencerxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 63%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3