Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 5 games
Abaddon
woMy · 4 games
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
452 picks · 981 bans
Void Spirit
430 picks · 589 bans
Death Prophet
370 picks · 693 bans
Mars
350 picks · 607 bans
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 181 bans
Grimstroke
287 picks · 251 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Cignal Ultra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Army Geniuses 51%Cignal Ultra 49%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoMamangDaya
Anti-MageAb1ng
Death Prophetdb-
LeshracJamesy
TimbersawwoMy
Earth SpiritLym-
Game 2prediction missed40:28
Army Geniuses 46%Cignal Ultra 54%
The model gave 54% on Cignal Ultra — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMamangDaya
PuckJamesy
Leshracdb-
Troll WarlordAb1ng
Night StalkerwoMy
Earth SpiritLym-
Model check result
Model favoriteCignal Ultra · 55%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2