?
arrow_backBack to match
LOOT.BET Pro Series Season 7. Юго-Восточная Азия · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
woMy · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 7 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lym- · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
17%
Axe
Axeoften banned
db- · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 5 games
20%

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 11 games
45%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 11 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
RR · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 9 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
420 picks · 170 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 463 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 518 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
296 picks · 620 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
293 picks · 736 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
284 picks · 161 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
275 picks · 358 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
266 picks · 219 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:22
Army Geniuses 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingdb-
50% · 46 games54% · 79 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMamangDaya
38% · 30 games57% · 38 games
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingwoMy
49% · 22 games44% · 32 games
BrewmasterRR
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaLym-
52% · 51 game
Game 2prediction correct22:28
Army Geniuses 44%Execration 56%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Riki
Rikidb-
44% · 15 games49% · 8 games
Chaos KnightPalos
Chaos Knight
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
55% · 53 games46% · 71 game
LinaBob
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
57% · 23 games51% · 66 games
Ancient ApparitionRR
Ancient Apparition
Mirana
MiranaLym-
47% · 54 games
Game 3prediction missed22:14
Army Geniuses 45%Execration 55%
The model gave 55% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 28:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMamangDaya
55% · 42 games50% · 52 games
LunaPalos
Luna
Riki
Rikidb-
55% · 16 games46% · 69 games
LinaBob
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
64% · 17 games41% · 13 games
BrewmasterRR
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLym-
45% · 59 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 63%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3