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BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marssignature
woMy · 12 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
db- · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 11 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 9 games
67%

Execration

Marci
Marcioften banned
Palos · 12 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Shanks · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 10 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 10 games
70%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
Palos · 10 games
60%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
352 picks · 240 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
339 picks · 561 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
289 picks · 494 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 170 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
252 picks · 414 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
246 picks · 500 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 282 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 98 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:20
Army Geniuses 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KinginYourdreaM
50% · 150 games50% · 56 games
Shadow FiendPalos
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYowe
47% · 192 games49% · 98 games
ViperTino-
Viper
Pugna
Pugnadb-
48% · 66 games50% · 255 games
SnapfireBob
Snapfire
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritcml
55% · 65 games51% · 158 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVarizh
51% · 94 games
Game 2prediction correct50:48
Army Geniuses 49%Execration 51%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 49:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetinYourdreaM
46% · 57 games52% · 15 games
SlarkPalos
Slark
Doom
Doomdb-
53% · 85 games56% · 141 game
TuskBob
Tusk
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYowe
44% · 107 games57% · 82 games
EnigmaTino-
Enigma
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVarizh
45% · 69 games44% · 136 games
DawnbreakerShanks
Dawnbreaker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritcml
50% · 56 games
Game 3prediction correct18:33
Army Geniuses 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerinYourdreaM
50% · 98 games52% · 160 games
Chaos KnightPalos
Chaos Knight
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYowe
43% · 156 games48% · 157 games
Templar AssassinBob
Templar Assassin
Pugna
Pugnadb-
34% · 89 games62% · 93 games
VisageTino-
Visage
Tusk
Tuskcml
49% · 103 games53% · 120 games
Nyx AssassinShanks
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorVarizh
55% · 84 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3