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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 17 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 12 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Jhocam · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 7 games
71%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
59%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 24 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Shanks · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 19 games
37%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 14 games
79%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
717 picks · 600 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 489 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
440 picks · 1063 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
422 picks · 728 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 1006 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
53%
Mirana
Mirana
375 picks · 201 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 814 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 32%
Hero pool strength56% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total56% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:39
Army Geniuses 49%Execration 51%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SireninYourdreaM
57% · 126 games48% · 76 games
MagnusPalos
Magnus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYowe
51% · 195 games53% · 362 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Batrider
Batriderdb-
56% · 199 games43% · 389 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
48% · 327 games45% · 293 games
EnchantressShanks
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVarizh
51% · 273 games
Game 2prediction missed41:19
Army Geniuses 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardeninYourdreaM
63% · 11 games46% · 99 games
TerrorbladePalos
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYowe
52% · 261 game47% · 205 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Pugna
Pugnadb-
48% · 68 games61% · 14 games
OmniknightTino-
Omniknight
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJhocam
58% · 37 games47% · 83 games
Keeper of the LightShanks
Keeper of the Light
Venomancer
VenomancerVarizh
50% · 24 games
Game 3prediction correct36:34
Army Geniuses 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 55:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerinYourdreaM
53% · 95 games55% · 136 games
DoomTino-
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYowe
48% · 106 games47% · 76 games
Void SpiritBob
Void Spirit
Magnus
Magnusdb-
49% · 56 games54% · 11 games
MuertaPalos
Muerta
Clinkz
ClinkzJhocam
43% · 21 game48% · 142 games
EnchantressShanks
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesVarizh
51% · 87 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 56%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3