Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBZSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 10 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Iooften banned
db- · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 3 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 3 games
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 8 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Tusk
CatYou · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
Disruptor
xiaofu · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 842 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 507 bans
Mars
309 picks · 549 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 479 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 234 bans
Rubick
252 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 66%
Series resultLBZS 0:2
Series predictionmissed