Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBZSwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 4 games
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
Tusk
CatYou · 7 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
xiaofu · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
464 picks · 1017 bans
Void Spirit
427 picks · 621 bans
Mars
375 picks · 660 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 666 bans
Earth Spirit
341 picks · 294 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
271 picks · 853 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 30%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 63%
Series resultLBZS 0:2
Series predictionmissed