OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
db- · 7 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
390 picks · 169 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 350 bans
Nyx Assassin
261 picks · 525 bans
Lina
250 picks · 404 bans
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 242 bans
Luna
246 picks · 325 bans
Puck
238 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Lilgun
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
Army Geniuses 60%Lilgun 40%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Lilgun in 27:31.
Game 2prediction missed27:37
Army Geniuses 60%Lilgun 40%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Lilgun in 29:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 60%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2