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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 16 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
14%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddon
woMy · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
db- · 4 games
25%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 2 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Q · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LionaX · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fearless · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 951 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 700 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 550 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
317 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
286 picks · 160 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 280 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 82%
Hero pool strength56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:23
Army Geniuses 37%Motivate.Trust Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingdb-
54% · 63 games60% · 6 games
Faceless VoidJaCkky
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
48% · 52 games47% · 46 games
BatriderFearless
Batrider
Riki
RikiMamangDaya
51% · 16 games46% · 57 games
LionQ
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressLym-
55% · 30 games49% · 52 games
Elder TitanLionaX
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct8:21
Army Geniuses 40%Motivate.Trust Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 21:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMamangDaya
53% · 67 games41% · 65 games
Troll WarlordJaCkky
Troll Warlord
Razor
Razordb-
66% · 33 games48% · 137 games
PuckFearless
Puck
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderwoMy
54% · 38 games29% · 3 games
Skywrath MageQ
Skywrath Mage
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLym-
47% · 120 games52% · 53 games
Elder TitanLionaX
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct17:30
Army Geniuses 38%Motivate.Trust Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherdb-
little data35% · 45 games
UrsaJaCkky
Ursa
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMamangDaya
54% · 82 games55% · 148 games
PuckFearless
Puck
Timbersaw
TimbersawwoMy
50% · 59 games53% · 47 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Lion
LionLym-
54% · 125 games45% · 26 games
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 72%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3