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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 9 games
22%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%

Neon Esports

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
58%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 633 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 433 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
443 picks · 268 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 634 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
391 picks · 472 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 551 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
329 picks · 651 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 16%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total54% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
Army Geniuses 53%Neon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgedb-
49% · 8 games52% · 62 games
NecrophosEnryu
Necrophos
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAzur4
49% · 108 games44% · 93 games
ClockwerkChuaN
Clockwerk
Enigma
EnigmawoMy
62% · 18 games46% · 145 games
GrimstrokeSe
Grimstroke
Phoenix
PhoenixVarizh
52% · 47 games
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
56% · 119 games
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Army Geniuses 53%Neon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadb-
56% · 165 games51% · 187 games
Death ProphetEnryu
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyAzur4
45% · 176 games51% · 169 games
Nyx AssassinChuaN
Nyx Assassin
Night Stalker
Night StalkerwoMy
46% · 85 games51% · 369 games
BaneSe
Bane
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNARMAN
51% · 157 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkVarizh
47% · 142 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 54%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2