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BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 16 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 6 games
50%

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
30%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 7 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ChuaN · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
668 picks · 525 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 722 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
467 picks · 620 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
448 picks · 919 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
352 picks · 420 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
303 picks · 395 bans
45%
Razor
Razor
283 picks · 515 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 451 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 26%
Hero pool strength59% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total59% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:20
Army Geniuses 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdb-
55% · 136 games49% · 178 games
KunkkaFortuneSoul
Kunkka
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
34% · 16 games58% · 66 games
VisageEnryu
Visage
Pangolier
PangolierinYourdreaM
49% · 111 games51% · 124 games
ClockwerkPlayHard
Clockwerk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
43% · 78 games
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterVarizh
51% · 27 games
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Army Geniuses 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendinYourdreaM
40% · 18 games52% · 104 games
MorphlingFortuneSoul
Morphling
Undying
Undyingdb-
51% · 37 games55% · 64 games
LycanEnryu
Lycan
Mars
MarswoMy
42% · 125 games59% · 56 games
EarthshakerPlayHard
Earthshaker
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNARMAN
49% · 35 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVarizh
38% · 9 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 59%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2